How many people have been infected in Africa?
More than 8,900 people in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Spain and the U.S. have contracted Ebola since March, according to the World Health Organization, making this the biggest outbreak on record. More than 4,400 people have died.
Where is the outbreak?
The disease continues to spread in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. The C.D.C. said on Sept. 30 that Nigeria appears to have contained its outbreak.
EBOLA CASES
SENEGAL
MALI
1
15
150
250
500 or more
GUINEA-
BISSAU
GUINEA
Atlantic Ocean
Guéckédou
SIERRA
LEONE
IVORY COAST
Kenema
WEST AFRICA
Monrovia
150 Miles
NIGERIA
LIBERIA
DETAIL
Source: USAID
Note: Areas affected as of Sept. 29
How many people could become infected?
The W.H.O. reported on Oct. 14 that the number of new Ebola cases could reach 10,000 per week by December.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published a report in September that outlined a worst-case scenario, in which the total number of cases could reach 1.4 million in four months. The C.D.C.’s model is based on data from August and includes cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone, but not Guinea (where counts have been unreliable). It also projects further into the future and adds ranges to account for underreporting of cases.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published a report in September that outlined a worst-case scenario, in which the total number of cases could reach 1.4 million in four months. The C.D.C.’s model is based on data from August and includes cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone, but not Guinea (where counts have been unreliable). It also projects further into the future and adds ranges to account for underreporting of cases.
1,400,000
Cumulative cases in Liberia
Best-case scenario
Worst-case scenario
1,200,000
11,000-27,000 cases through Jan. 20
537,000-1,367,000 cases through Jan. 20
Assumes 70 percent of patients are treated in settings that confine the illness and that the dead are buried safely. About 18 percent of patients in Liberia and 40 percent in Sierra Leone are being treated in appropriate settings.
If the disease continues spreading without effective intervention. Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, the C.D.C. director, said, “My gut feeling is, the actions we’re taking now are going to make that worst-case scenario not come to pass. But it’s important to understand that it could happen.”
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
Range
400,000
200,000
0
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Sept.
Sept.
2014
2015
2014
2015
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
An earlier version of this chart was mislabeled. The chart shows cumulative cases in Liberia, not in Liberia and Sierra Leone.
What is the United States doing to help?
President Obama announced Sept. 16 an expansion of military and medical resources to combat the outbreak, including the deployment of as many as 4,000 American military personnel to Liberia and Senegal. He said the United States would help Liberia in the construction of more than 17 Ebola treatment centers in the region, with about 1,700 beds, and would also open a joint command operation to coordinate the international effort to combat the disease. But military planners say construction of the centers have been delayed because of the difficulty in getting heavy equipment to the areas.
How does this compare to past outbreaks?
It is the deadliest, eclipsing an outbreak in 1976, the year the virus was discovered.
Ebola cases and deaths by year, and countries affected
Cases
Deaths
1976
1995
2000
2007
2014
2nd-worst year
5th
3rd
4th
1st
Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo
Democratic Republic of Congo
Uganda
Uganda, Democratic Republic of Congo
Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone
602 cases
431 deaths
315 cases
254 deaths
425 cases
224 deaths
413 cases
224 deaths
6,553 cases
3,083 deaths
as of Sept. 26
Source: World Health Organization
Why is Ebola so difficult to contain?
The epidemic is growing faster than efforts to keep up with it, and it will take months before governments and health workers in the region can get the upper hand, according to Doctors Without Borders.
In some parts of West Africa, there is a belief that simply saying “Ebola” aloud makes the disease appear. Such beliefs have created major obstacles for physicians trying to combat the outbreak. Some people have even blamed physicians for the spread of the virus, opting to turn to witch doctors for treatment instead. Their skepticism is not without a grain of truth: In past outbreaks, hospital staff members who did not take thorough precautions became unwitting travel agents for the virus.
In some parts of West Africa, there is a belief that simply saying “Ebola” aloud makes the disease appear. Such beliefs have created major obstacles for physicians trying to combat the outbreak. Some people have even blamed physicians for the spread of the virus, opting to turn to witch doctors for treatment instead. Their skepticism is not without a grain of truth: In past outbreaks, hospital staff members who did not take thorough precautions became unwitting travel agents for the virus.
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